Transfer Distance and Hotel Quality in the Tour de France 2015

Analysing the quality of hotels in the 2015 Tour made me wonder if there were any factors that could lessen the impact of poor quality hotel. For example, are the teams that travel furthest rewarded with an excellent chateau, whilst those a stones throw from the finish line have to slum it in the local Ibis? At least those with the shortest transfer won't have to be cooped up in their team bus, stuck in a traffic jam for hours on end. I'm guessing that riders might prefer that, even if that means their hotel isn't that great and they have to travel further in the morning to the stage départ.

So, using Google maps we calculated the distance from the stage finish to each of the hotels. We took the recommended route suggested by Google, even if that was a slightly longer distance than the shortest. For the transfer after stage 9, we used the distance from Pau airport to the hotel. We also recorded the travel time suggested by Google. All times were set for an evening rush hour to mimic the large amount of spectator traffic. No doubt these may not accurately represent the time taken to get off a mountain - riders have recounted tales of being stuck for hours on end on Alpe d'huez, whilst the maillot jaune gets airlifted off in a helicopter. This year, at least, the riders will be staying overnight on the Alpe - it's the Pyrenean mountain stages that might cause problems.

Here's what the data said.

Transfer Distance

Overall, the average distances between teams is fairly similar, ranging from 33km/stage to 43km/stage. Astana comes out the best overall. Team Sky come in at 41km. Not great differences you might think - but look at the overall distances. Over the entire race, Astana's transfers add up to 703km. Sky's are 862km, and Cannondale's just over 900kms. Those little differences all add up - marginal gains that are sure to worry Dave Brailsford. You might think that some of these differences may be made up the following day - the teams that travel further after the stage may have less distance to go to the following stage's start. In fact on some stages, hotels with large transfer distances are not much closer to the start the day after than those with short distances.

As you might expect, average transfer distances vary each stage. The first week isn't too bad at around 50-60kms average. But no-one will be looking forward to the horrific transfer on stage 12. After finishing on top of Plateau de Beille, after waiting for the grupetto, the teams will have to get off the mountain and drive around 140kms to their hotels near Toulouse. The hotels might be a bit noisy too - they are all at Toulouse airport. Quelle horreur!

Looking more closely at some of the key stages might also ring alarm bells in some teams - particularly Team Sky. After stage 17 to Pra Loup - the first big Alpine rendez-vous - Astana are lucky enough to have just a 26km drive to their hotel. Team Sky meanwhile will need to trek 98kms to theirs. Tinkoff don't come off much better - its a 70km drive for them. You can see the transfer distances for all stages and teams in this table:

Transfer Distance and Hotel Quality

If you were hoping to find a relationship between transfer distance and hotel quality then you'd be disappointed. If your transfer is long, then you might end up in a nice hotel, but you might not. Its pot luck.

In a rough and ready way, we've combined the rankings of hotel quality and transfer distance to create a (limited) overall index of 'tour hotel experience'. We ranked hotel satisfaction 1-22 (highest to lowest), and transfer distance 1-22 (lowest-highest) and then added those ranks together. The index gives equal weight to distance and quality, but it gives us some an idea of who comes off best when you factor in transfer distance.

Overall, Astana finish in first place, thanks to their short transfers and 4th place in the satisfaction GC. Movistar move out of the relegation zone and up to 13th. Team Sky is one of the big losers, falling to 15th place in the new league table. Tinkoff are slightly lower in 18th, with Europcar sitting at the bottom.

Team Name	Total Transfer km	Ave. Transfer km	Rank	Positive Review %	Rank	Sum of Ranks
Astana	703.7	33.51	1	72.76	4	5
BMC	743.1	35.39	4	74.61	2	6
Lotto-Jumbo	778.4	37.07	8	79.4	1	9
IAM	720.5	34.31	2	72.19	8	10
Orica	790.4	37.64	9	72.32	7	16
Bretagne	829.8	39.51	14	72.43	5	19
AG2R	747.3	35.59	5	69.32	14	19
Lotto	850.7	40.51	18	74.06	3	21
FDJ	824.2	39.25	12	71.48	9	21
MTN	822.4	39.16	11	69.99	10	21
Bora	791.1	37.67	10	69.37	12	22
Katusha	828.1	39.43	13	69.44	11	24
Movistar	732.5	34.88	3	62.3	21	24
Giant	765.8	36.47	7	67.59	18	25
Sky	862	41.05	20	72.37	6	26
Trek	756.9	36.04	6	64.76	20	26
Etixx	851.4	40.54	19	69.37	12	31
Tinkoff	837.2	39.87	16	69.05	16	32
Cofidis	845.2	40.25	17	67.8	17	34
Cannondale	913.9	43.52	22	69.17	15	37
Lampre	836.7	39.84	15	56.1	22	37
Europcar	862.2	41.06	21	67.1	19	40

So, plenty to think about for some teams. When it comes to either hotel quality or transfer distance, it seems that there's still plenty of variation between teams that ASO might want to address in future.