Hotels du Tour 2018

When the poor are faced with the total domination of global corporate power, do they meekly comply or as James C Scott suggests, turn to the ‘weapons of the weak’ - those subtle yet undermining tactics of ignorance, false compliance and foot dragging?

The organiser of the Tour de France, ASO, is no puny organisation. But faced with the prospect of Chris Froome riding the Tour with a doping investigation hanging over him, and seemingly no choice of barring him from the event, what can they do? Public hand wringing is one thing; a legal battle likely to be a mere performance; but secretly making life difficult comes straight from the playbook of subtle resistance.

How can ASO do this? One option: give Team Sky the shittiest hotels in France and reward his rivals, Ag2r for instance, with the best. As a strategy it might not have the teeth of an angry badger, but it’d be a sign that ASOs public statements were more than a performance.

So what have ASO actually done? Like previous years I’ve crunched the data, using Trip Advisor to score the hotels listed in the Tour de France roadbook. The results are interesting to say the least.

Overall Comparisons

First up, how do this year’s results compare to last year’s? Interestingly, there’s been a decline in the average daily satisfaction rate: does from 76% in 2017 to 74% in 2018. Moveover, the gap between the best and the worst has increased: this year, there’s a 14% gap in the average daily satisfaction scores, with the top team getting an average satisfaction score of 82.4%. Last year, the gap was only 10%. All this means that the team with the best hotels this year has slightly better hotels than in 2017, and the team with the worst hotels this year has slightly worse hotels than last year’s lanterne rouge.

The General Classification

The question you are all asking is what about Team Sky. Well, if ASO truly were fed up with Chris Froome, then might have given him some dodgy hotels. In fact, the winners of this year’s Hotels du Tour GC are, you guessed it: Team Sky. Incroyable! Last year, Team Sky languished in 20th place on the Hotels GC, but in the three years before were in the top 5. BMC and Movistar have also fared well in the past.

Worse still, ASO have done no favours to French favourite Romain Bardet. Whilst Team Sky’s rivals BMC and Movistar are also in the top 5, poor AG2r finish last in the Hotels GC. Sacre bleu! Don't ASO want a French winner of the Tour de France? In fact last year, they finished 10th - their highest ever GC position over the last 3 Tours.

Conclusion

Despite its public desire to exclude Team Sky’s leader from this year’s Tour, ASO have done them every favour when it comes to hotel selection. Maybe secretly they love Chris Froome, or maybe they have a poor grasp of the art of subtle resistance. Or maybe something else is going on? Is there a gap between the leadership of ASO and those on the ground choosing who gets to stay where? Or are  Team Sky slipping ASO some extra Euros to ensure they get the best hotels? 

Hotels du Tour 2017

Last year it seemed that the big teams at the Tour de France – the likes of Sky and BMC – were getting a good deal. Perhaps stung by the criticism levelled at them in 2015, not only did ASO provide better quality hotels, they continued to match big budget teams with big budget hotels.

But what are things like this year? Who can remember a tweet or complaint from a rider about their accommodation this year? Has hotel quality improved? Or maybe riders been silenced by their teams keen to stay on the right side of race organisers?

Nevertheless, previous years have shown variations in the quality of hotels between teams. For 2017, the question is have ASO taken the opportunity to shuffle the hotel options around – give more questionable quality hotels to the big teams, and reward those who’ve had a bad deal in previous years?

Well, it looks like they might have – there’s a different feel to the hotel distribution this year.  

Lets look at the data for 2017.

Materials and Methods

As before, Ive used the Roadbook for the Tour de France to identify the hotels each team gets to stay in, and then looked them up on TripAdvisor to get levels of satisfaction. TripAdvisor uses a 5 point scale to assess customer satisfaction (from Excellent to Terrible): Ive combined the top 2 categories to calculate satisfaction. Sometimes hotels have lots of reviews, others not so many. Reviewers in expensive hotels may be more critical – who knows? Either way, the analysis is not adjusting for anything like that.

Results

2017 Hotel Quality

The first thing to notice is that this year, the overall level of satisfaction for Hotels in the Tour has risen. Maybe ASO have been consulting TripAdvisor for their hotel selection? Maybe reviewers on TripAdvisor are getting more generous in their assessments? Or maybe hotels in France are just getting better?

In 2016 the total satisfaction score was 38583.65 – this year it had risen to 38787.39. So a small rise which translates into a daily satisfaction increase of around 0.4%.  In fact, this is the second year that satisfaction levels have risen – although last year’s increase was more substantial.

The 2017 GC

Back in 2016, Trek Segafredo ran out winners of the Hotels du Tour GC, followed by Bora, Orica, BMC and Sky.

This year, it's a completely different GC – the teams with the big favourites, the likes of Sky, BMC and Trek are nowhere. Winning the GC is Bahrain-Merida – surely sending Nibali into one of his strops given his decision to miss this years race. Lotto-Soudal finish 2^nd, with Katusha rounding off the podium. FDJ are 4^th, with Cannondale continuing to bounce back from their lack of World Tour results in 5^th.

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But what a race too! Bahrain-Merida took the yellow jersey (hotel?) on stage 3 only to suffer a stage 6 fringale of catastrophic proportions, falling to 18^th on GC. Down, but not out, it takes an eyebrow-raising revival to catapault them back into contention by just stage 9. Hotel doping? Maybe I need to start looking at Booking.com and Expedia too.

The Favourites

Given that last year’s GC was packed with teams containing the top GC riders, it was tempting to think that maybe there’s a correlation between performance and hotel quality.

Whilst correlation does not equal causation, at this stage Chris Froome may be looking around for a motorhome. Just as his form has been inconsistent, so are his hotels. In fact, Sky’s Tour never gets going – never getting above 15^th on the GC and eventually finishing a lowly 20^th.

Quintana (or Valverde) has little to smile about – Movistar finish 13^th – with Contador’s Trek a little worse off in 15^th.

If this was to be the year for Romain Bardet, then ASO haven’t exactly done AG2R any favours. Not suited to the early flat stages, they spend their time bouncing around the bottom of the GC with Sky, only to pull themselves away from the lanterne rouge once they get to the mountains and finish 11^th . A prophecy perhaps?

Which leaves BMC and Richie Porte. Demonstrating he’s escaped from Froome’s shadow, BMC never really threaten the GC but still finish the Tour in 6^th place – and are the only big team that get close to their position from 2016.

The Key Changes: 2017 - 2016

So if there has been a changing of the guard, who has fared best and worst?

No doubt the biggest decline is in Team Sky, falling 16 places on GC in 2017. Quick Step / Etixx fell 12 places and Trek 14.

Shooting up (the charts) are last  year’s lanterne rouge chasers Lampre. Changing their name to Bahrain-Merida has seen their GC position rise 19 places. Getting Alpecin on as co-sponsors as also helped Katusha: its not just their hair that’s benefitted, but their GC position has risen 11 places.

But pity poor old Giant Alpecin/Team Sunweb. Last on the GC in 2016, they are last again in 2017 (not forgetting 17^th in 2015). They are nothing if not consistent. But no wonder Tom Dumoulin chose to ride the Giro.

The Best and the Worst Hotels

If you’re looking for somewhere to stay in France, then you could do a lot worse than the Inter Hotel Vamcel – this year’s highest scoring hotel (97.2% satisfaction). Orica get to stay here on stage 11. But pity Team Astana who get to ‘enjoy’ the luxury of the 33.6% rated Campanile, Bergerac. Not just for 1 night, though – but three! As they say for every Chateau there’s a Campanile – and for stages 9-10 (including the rest day) its Wanty Groupe Gobert that get to stay in the Chateau des Vigiers at Monestier (87.7% satisfaction). Perhaps a little surprising was to see the Novotel in Dijon amongst the lowest scoring hotels (stage 7 for Orica and Direct Energie). I last stayed there in the early 80’s and it was alright, but perhaps it’s changed a bit since...

The Best and the Worst Stages

The best hotels seem to be found at the start, middle and end of the race - some psychology there from ASO perhaps? However, the gap between the best and the worst hotels also happens at the end of the first week of racing, although the second week is not too bad.

Conclusion

They say in cycling that the Tour is the Tour, but also that what goes around comes around. Looking at these results you might agree. There’s definitely been a reshuffling of the pack. Last year’s winners have fallen from grace, whilst others have risen from the depths. Maybe Sky’s experience will revive talk of motorhomes? And if ASO have some kind of hotel rotation policy, then maybe it’s only visible over a longer time period. Or maybe ASO’s hotel algorithm is just chance: some teams like Team Sunweb will be wondering what they’ve got to do to get decent hotels.

Hotels du Tour 2016

Journalists seem to be struggling for decent accommodation at this year's Tour de France...

'It's ok,' said @tomcary_tel. 'I've booked a room for three.' #hotelfail pic.twitter.com/8pDDW0pn1P

— Richard Moore (@richardmoore73) July 15, 2016

But the riders seem less stressed.

I look forward to today, good crowds on mont ventoux and specially to sleep tonight in @coquillade! Beautiful place to stay #ride_bmc

— Greg Van Avermaet (@GregVanAvermaet) July 14, 2016

Unlike last year, there's been no mass complaints about the quality of their accommodation, at least not yet. Have they got other things to worry about? Maybe, as someone better connected than me suggested, last year's complaints were part of a political battle between the teams and ASO? Or maybe ASO just acted on their complaints from last year? Maybe they even read this blog!

So, lets look at the data for the 2016 Tour.

Like last year, Ive used the Tour's road book to identify all the hotels the teams stay in, and crowdsourced big data, i.e. Trip Advisor, to measure the quality of every hotel. Here's the classification provisoire - I need to check my calculations, as Sean Kelly might say..

The 2016 Yellow Jersey

This year the fight for the GC has been very tight. Trek ran out winners after never dropping out of the top 5 for the entire race. Bora, meanwhile, came from 13th on stage 12 to finish as runner-up. Super teams like Sky and BMC are also up there.  Trek have the highest average satisfaction at 78.49%, but Bora are very close behind (78.23) - maybe the closest Tour finish since 1989?

The Climber's Prize

In light of last year's complaints about the hotels, its interesting to see that the overall levels of hotel satisfaction are up by 5.5% this year when compared to last year's figures.

Another thing that is interesting is that Orica, Sky and BMC have finished in the top 5 two years in a row. But its Trek who climb the GC rankings like Pantani - they were down in 20th last year, rising 19 places to top the GC in 2016. Lampre also had a big rise in overall satisfaction, but that only took them two places up the GC. Dropping like Chris Froome off the Peyresourde was team Dimension Data, falling 13 places. And despite the number of stages they won (see below), Lotto NL Jumbo also fall 12 places.

Stage Winners

Lotto NL Jumbo have the most 'stage winning' hotels at 5, followed by BMC on 4, then Lampre and Orica, IAM and Katusha on 3 stages. There are some dead heats and one decision by the commissaires jury for Tinkoff on stages 14 and 15. Their hotel does not feature on Trip Advisor. In fact it doesn't feature on any hotel website. Chateau des Creusettes is exclusive. So exclusive that you can only book privately. Fortunately, just like the UCI rules, my analysis has a bit wriggle-room and by the looks of things it deserves to get 100%.

The Best and the Worst

The Chateau des Creusettes is not the only hotel to get 100% satisfaction. Stage 20 see Lotto NL Jumbo and Lampre share the Fleur des Neiges in Morzine. Meanwhile, Direct Energie get to stay in the worst hotel of the race on Stage 3 - Campanile in Angers - that had just 34% satisfaction. Last year, one of the worst hotels of the race was the Hyatt Regency Etoile in Paris on the last stage. All the teams were put up there. This year, there's a bit more diversity: some teams get to stay in the AC Hotel Paris Porte Maillot, which would have been appropriate if Contador had won the race. For ten teams, their jour sans comes on the final stages the Hyatt. Whether the after race party means they'll notice or not is another thing.

Stage Rankings 

Last year, the hotels in the Alps - particularly around Gap - were the subject of most criticism by the riders. Hotels without air-con, or in Team Sky's case, located next to an abattoir. This year, when the race enters the critical period in the Alps, the riders have the best hotels. For stages 17-19, the riders get to stay in the same hotels which collectively have the 2nd highest level of satisfaction. The highest comes the day after in Morzine. The lowest though is in Paris...

Overall

From this quick look things might seem a little closer than last year. Compared to last year, the gaps between the top and bottom is narrower. Giant Alpecin may have finished last, but their overall score is still relatively high at 67.16% which would have put them in about 18th place last year - that's also 11% higher than last year's lanterne rouge. So, maybe ASO have a new algorithm to help them spread out the decent hotels? But there's still a ten point gap between top and bottom. And not everyone gets to stay in an exclusive Chateau like the Tinkoff's Chateau des Creusettes.

Update 1: Overall levels of hotel satisfaction are up by 5.5% this year when compared to last year's figures.

Tour de France 2015 - Hotel Stage Winners

Stage Winning Hotels

Here's the complete podium for all stages of the 2015 Tour.

Hotel Quality in the 2015 Tour de France

Who needs a motorhome?

Team Sky’s motorhome, unveiled at the Giro d’Italia in May 2015, was supposed to provide the best recovery environment for their team leader – Richie Porte. No more would he be subject to the vagaries of a different hotel everyday with their dodgy beds, mouldy tiles and iffy wifi. Regular, standardised comfort was the name of the game. That the quality of hotels was seen as a problem by riders was magnified when the UCI banned the use of motorhomes. Other riders took to twitter posting pictures of the bizarre dormitories and sleeping arrangements they’d had to put up with.

Cracking crib for few days... #goodnight pic.twitter.com/vuxOxoEi9d

— Geraint Thomas (@GeraintThomas86) June 13, 2015

Stage race organisers say they try to equalize the quality of accommodation between teams. When it comes to the Tour de France, organisers ASO say they visit each hotel they use, rate them on a scale of 1-5, and then randomly distribute the hotels so that everyone gets a fair share of the good, the bad and the ugly.

The question is: how accurate are ASO, or do some teams still have an advantage? To put it another way: were Team Sky onto something when they bought their RV?

The Wisdom of the Crowd (Peloton?)

Dave Brailsford returned from a trip to Silicon Valley raving about how ‘big data’ and ‘the wisdom of the crowds’ would offer the next crucial performance breakthroughs in cycling. So what better way of analyzing hotel quality than using online hotel reviews?! There are some problems with using hotel reviews from a site like Trip Advisor (for example, see this paper). But no doubt Brailsford’s Silicon Valley chums told him about “Linus’s law”: ‘Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow’. We'll just go with that.

Using Trip Advisor and the Tour de France Road Book, we identified all the hotels used during the 2015 Tour and their percentage of positive reviews – that's ‘excellent’ and ‘very good’ ratings combined. Out of the 184 hotels used by the Tour, 181 were in Trip Advisor. That includes the hotels used for the rest days and the pre-tour presentation. For those hotels, that amounts to a total of 26737 reviews, with a median of just over 100 but with a lot of variation (those in the large cities tend to get more reviews than those in the sticks).

For the three hotels who had 'missed tests' - where they weren't available - we gave them the lowest value for that stage – a bit like being relegated to the back of the peloton. Some of them might have a good excuse, however. One of the hotels without any reviews appears to be caught up in some sort of dispute with the local mayor, which might explain the absence of reviews on Trip Advisor. By using that hotel, ASO seem to be meddling in politics - plus ça change...

Stage Winning Hotels

So, what are the hotels like at this year’s Tour? Upsetting for ASO, perhaps, the stages with the best average hotel satisfaction come on the first two days when the race is in Holland. The worst stage is the last when all teams get to stay in the Hyatt Regency Paris Etoile, which is “run down, shabby and old” according to one Trip Advisor reviewer. Stage winning hotels and those finishing in the autobus are shown below. You can see the podium for each day here.

A couple of hotels have a 100% satisfaction score. Pas normal, peut-etre? Stage 9 has the Inter Hotel Vamcel, Lescar which Orica are lucky enough to stay in. Their bus driver should be careful, though: one reviewer commented that space for parking was limited. Another 100% hotel is on Stage 15 - Hotel Sous les Pins in which Team Giant get to rest their legs in. The last - Hotel Les Airelles in La Toussuire - is on stages 18/19, in which FDJ and BMC get to stay in. Mind you, that one only has 3 reviews - sort of equivalent to an incomplete biological passport.

Stage 14 also has some good hotels: the Kyriad la Garde, Albaret Sainte Marie which Astana and Europcar get to stay in has a 98% satisfaction rate. One previous guest commented that: “the staff were incredibly helpful, nothing was too much trouble. The room was very clean and neat as was the bathroom and the bed was so comfy!”. But stage 14 also has some of the worst: Le Panoramic Gararit in Anglards de Saint Flour is described as “a sad and depressing fly infected excuse for a hotel” by one past guest. Tour de France debutants MTN-Qhubeka have the misfortune of staying there. The worst of the entire Tour is the Hotel des Messageries in Saint Flour. With just a 9% satisfaction rating, one Trip Advisor reviewer describes it as a 'dirty, ugly nightmare'. Good job cycling teams have their own chefs these days, otherwise it'd probably be just bread and water.

Its worth pointing out that teams often get to stay in the same hotel for several nights, and this often occurs at crucial points in the race. For the Pyrenean stages, Team Sky gets to stay in one of the best hotels of the race (with 93% satisfaction) for 4 consecutive nights. By contrast, their GC rivals Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo get to stay in a hotel with just a 49% satisfaction level. Maybe Sky’s motorhome wasn't needed after-all?

The General Classification

Despite ASO’s insistence, there are substantial variations in hotel quality between teams. Top of hotel GC is Lotto-Jumbo, with Lampre-Merida as the hotel laterne rouge. Maybe ASO should think about using Trip Advisor to divvy up the hotels - their classification doesn't seem to be working.

Of the big 4 GC teams, highest placed is Astana in 3^rd overall. Team Sky slot into fourth place. Of the remaining GC contenders, Nairo Quintana’s Movistar is in 21^st place, and Alberto Contador’s Tinkoff-Saxo in 14^th place.

Team	Total Satisfaction Score	Final GC Position	Satisfaction Daily Average
Lotto-Jumbo	1905.48	1	79.395
BMC	1790.68	2	74.61
Astana	1746.33	3	72.76
Sky	1736.9	4	72.37
Orica	1735.75	5	72.32
IAM ***	1719.25	6	71.64
FDJ	1715.6	7	71.48
MTN	1679.81	8	69.99
Lotto-Soudal *	1678.37	9	69.93
Bora	1664.89	10	69.37
Etixx	1664.88	11	69.37
AG2R	1663.72	12	69.32
Cannondale	1660.18	13	69.17
Tinkoff	1657.21	14	69.05
Bretagne *	1645.91	15	68.58
Cofidis	1627.28	16	67.80
Giant	1622.14	17	67.59
Europcar	1610.43	18	67.10
Katusha **	1606.1	19	66.92
Trek	1554.24	20	64.76
Movistar ***	1501.71	21	62.57
Lampre ***	1365.3	22	56.89

* Missing reviews on 4 stages –lowest hotel satisfaction score for the stages used

** Missing review on 1 stage –lowest hotel satisfaction score for the stage used

*** Missing review on 2 stages –lowest hotel satisfaction score for the stages used

Just like the race itself, these GC positions change – although Lotto-Jumbo nearly pull off a Merckxian like start to finish hold on the hotel yellow jersey. Sky’s 4^th place on GC belies their poor start in the flatlands and cobbles, only coming on strong when the race hits the high mountains. An omen perhaps for Chris Froome?

The Finish Line

Despite what ASO say, there are substantial differences in hotel quality between Tour teams. Hotel quality does not even out over the length of the Tour. Maybe ASO’s hotel reviewers are more attuned to pro-cyclists’ demands than Trip Advisor’s reviewers. But the most common complaints in Trip Advisor are about poor quality bedrooms, cleanliness and lack of air conditioning – the same concerns that pro-cyclists have.

Team Sky may have been on to something with their motorhome, but ironically it would have served the needs of some of the riders in the poorer teams in the peloton than Chris Froome.

Notes

Data were extracted from Trip Advisor 22-26 June. Trip Advisor reviews are constantly updated – hotel satisfaction levels change over time. Don't blame me if they change when you look.